Weather report this week at LA beaches - 1 beach towel coverage, late afternoon
What will this winter turn out to be in California?
So far in Southern California, the weather at the beach is giving many people fits. The warm days, cold snap at night, and high pollen counts are creating massive sinus headaches. Pharmacists have become experts pointing people to Aisle 3 of the store, where headache and sinus sufferers can pop $100 and a variety of pills ranging from simple Motrin and aspirin to the sinus drying agents and expensive nose sprays.
An article by Tom Stienstra in the San Francisco Chronicle offers his observations on what the California winter will be. The award-winning reporter looks to signs such as plant growth, thickness of the layers of an onion, migration of sandhill cranes on the Pacific Flyway which he says are right on schedule, difference between air temperatures on and offshore that affect storms’ abilities to move onto land, and even the moon. His conclusion: “The truth is, I have never predicted anything. Nature does. I just pay attention.”
And Sienstra is in good company. Weather predictions in recent years have been off–way off! El Nino predictions of wet and dry winter patterns in the Pacific have missed the mark as Californians braced for rain, cities stocked up the sandbags and waited, and the big storms failed to materialize in places where rain rarely comes. Scientists this year stated that the weather patterns are changing and traditional models for prediction don’t seem to be working. Nevertheless, farmers, commuters and even beach-goers count on weather predictions to plant crops and make plans.
Here’s the current 2009-2010 NOAA weather prediction, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory:
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, providing a Niño-3.4 index. This increased nearly a degree. Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, consistent with this warming. Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies also increased during the month, and low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of the equatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.
There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño. Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist though most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010. The most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include
- enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean
- continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia
- above-average precipitation for Florida
- above-average precipitation for central and eastern Texas
- above-average precipitation for California
- below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest
- above-average temperatures for Northern Rockies
- below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest
- below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states
